Last week, this publication reported that a government working group had used an AI model to forecast party positions on the energy crisis. We noted, in that article, that confidential planning documents had been obtained and would be published shortly.
They are published now.
The Documents
The documents describe nine tiers of emergency fuel demand management, structured as an escalation ladder. Each tier is presented with projected savings and a summary of scope. Implementation criteria, exemption categories, and enforcement powers are delegated, in each tier, to Appendix C.
Tier One: Emergency Speed Restrictions
A temporary national motorway cap of 100 km/h, reduced to 80 km/h on major non-urban roads. Applicable to all private vehicles. Emergency statutory authority is cited.
Implementation timeline: see Appendix C. Exemption categories: see Appendix C. Enforcement powers: see Appendix C.
Projected savings: 1-3% of national road fuel demand within weeks of implementation.
Tier Two: Mandatory Remote Working
Public administration and state-owned entities required to shift telework-eligible staff to home working two or three days per week. Emergency authority extended to designated private employers where legally possible. Staggered working hours to flatten peak load.
Designated employer list: see Appendix C. Definition of telework-eligible: see Appendix C. Legal authority boundaries: see Appendix C.
Projected savings: 0.5-2% of total oil demand, concentrated in commuter fuel.
Tier Three: Car-Free Sundays
Private car use prohibited every Sunday in major metropolitan areas. Essential-service exemptions apply. The document lists: emergency services, healthcare workers, carers, disability transport, critical supply chains, time-sensitive logistics, agricultural operations in seasonal windows, and persons transporting dependants to essential appointments.
Complete exemption framework, including the definition of "essential appointment": see Appendix C.
Historical precedent is noted in the document: West Germany, Switzerland, and the Netherlands during the 1973 crisis. The document does not note how those programmes ended.
Projected savings: 0.5-1.5% of total oil demand.
Tier Four: Odd/Even Licence Plate Restrictions
Private vehicles permitted in defined urban zones only on alternating days based on registration number parity. Enforcement via automatic number plate recognition and fines. Exemptions: emergency vehicles, healthcare workers, disabled drivers, carers, critical workers, priority freight.
Definition of critical worker: see Appendix C. Fine schedule and appeals process: see Appendix C.
The document notes Italy's experience with similar schemes and reports 10-15% reductions in urban transport fuel where applied. The document does not note that Italian motorists developed a secondary market in second registration plates within six weeks.
Projected savings: 3-8% of national road fuel demand, depending on exemption breadth.
Tier Five: Emergency Fuel Entitlement System
Fuel entitlements assigned by household profile and vehicle class. Priority supply reserved for ambulances, food logistics, utilities, public transport, and agriculture. Non-essential users receive capped monthly allocations. Essential workers may apply for supplemental allowances.
The document cites Switzerland's coupon system and the UK National Emergency Plan for Fuel as legal precedents. It recommends holding Tier Five in reserve for genuine supply emergency, not price discomfort.
Definition of genuine supply emergency: see Appendix C.
Entitlement schedule by vehicle class: see Appendix C.
Supplemental allowance application process: see Appendix C.
Projected savings: 8-15% of national road fuel demand.
Tier Six: Mandatory Vehicle Occupancy Rule
Private cars entering defined metropolitan zones during weekday peak periods must carry at least two occupants. Single-occupancy commuting is characterised in the document as "the least efficient use of fuel in a constrained system."
Exemptions: disabled users, emergency services, trades carrying equipment, and parents transporting small children where no alternative arrangement is possible.
Definition of "small children": see Appendix C. Definition of "no alternative arrangement": see Appendix C. Peak period hours by zone: see Appendix C.
Projected savings: 1-3% of national road fuel demand, concentrated in urban commuter fuel.
Tier Seven: Suspension of Low-Value High-Fuel Activities
Temporary prohibition of fuel-intensive activities with limited public value. The document lists: non-essential road racing, private pleasure boating using taxed transport fuel, certain categories of training flights, promotional road events, and routine in-person government travel replaceable by remote means.
The document notes this measure produces savings below 1% nationally. It recommends the measure nonetheless on grounds of political legibility: the least necessary uses of fuel should visibly disappear before broader restrictions are imposed on the general population.
The document does not address what happens if the general population notices that Tier Seven applies to activities it was not aware governments conducted.
Definition of "non-essential": see Appendix C. List of affected activities: see Appendix C. Exemptions for official purposes: see Appendix C.
Projected savings: below 1%. Symbolic value: not quantified. Both figures are approximate.
Tier Eight: Sectoral Fuel Budget System
Fuel-consuming sectors assigned monthly consumption ceilings based on economic criticality. Priority sectors: food logistics, grid maintenance, healthcare, public transport, agriculture. Reduced allocation sectors: construction, non-essential retail distribution, corporate fleet operations, non-critical service travel. Firms must report consumption and formally justify exceptions.
The document notes this measure requires a command-style allocation model. It acknowledges this is "more radical" than the preceding tiers. It proceeds to describe it in considerable administrative detail.
Criticality tier by sector: see Appendix C. Exception justification criteria: see Appendix C. Reporting frequency and format: see Appendix C. Definition of "non-critical service travel": see Appendix C.
Projected savings: 5-10% of national diesel and petrol use, depending on how aggressively non-critical sectors are constrained. The document does not define "aggressively."
Tier Nine: Emergency Static Vehicle Order
Private vehicles may not exceed 0 km/h on any road at any time. The measure applies to all non-exempted vehicles. It does not apply to vehicles that are already stationary for other reasons.
The document notes this measure has not been modelled in detail. It is included for completeness. The working group considered it a theoretical upper bound rather than a deployable option.
Exemption categories: see Appendix C. Definition of non-exempted vehicle: see Appendix C. Distinction between "stationary under this order" and "stationary for other reasons": see Appendix C.
Projected savings: up to 100% of private vehicle road fuel demand. The document does not specify what percentage of national oil demand this represents. This figure is also in Appendix C.
Appendix C
The document refers to Appendix C forty-one times.
We also obtained Appendix C.
Appendix C has not been produced.
The references in the main document indicate that Appendix C is being prepared by a dedicated working group. As of the document's date, that working group's composition had not been finalised. Its terms of reference were approved in principle. A convening date was not provided.
The working group would meet, the document notes, following confirmation of the participating ministry's legal authority to convene it.
The nine tiers are otherwise complete.
A Note on Consistency
We asked Professor K. Glasskugel of the Vienna Institute whether the absence of Appendix C affected the document's projected savings figures.
He said the main tiers were entirely credible on their own terms. He had not reviewed Appendix C.
We did not ask a follow-up question.
The documents arrived in good order. They are internally consistent. The nine tiers are soundly structured. The escalation logic is correct.
The measures would reduce fuel demand significantly. Implementation criteria are detailed in Appendix C.
We note that the working group responsible for Appendix C will itself require formal terms of reference. These will be set out in a covering document. The title of that document has not been agreed.
Filed from Sussex.