P. van Aarden, infrastructure and defence analyst at Bastion Industrial Partners, attended the margins of the 12 May EU defence ministers meeting in Brussels. He spoke to The Prompt on 13 May 2026.

The EU defence ministers met on 12 May and found large gaps in European defence capability. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann has now proposed a full European Defence Union. Is this realistic?

The gap between identified and proposed is shorter than the gap between proposed and decided. The initiative is genuine. Whether it becomes a structure depends on whether the largest member states conclude that multilateral coordination serves their interests better than national options. The largest member state has already concluded this.

Germany.

Germany has the largest defence budget increase in absolute terms. Germany has the largest economy. Germany shapes EU institutional frameworks through structural weight, not through votes. The initiative comes from the German Parliament's defence committee. These are not coincidences.

France has been building bilateral security arrangements -- with Poland, with Greece, with others. Is the European Defence Union a response to that?

I would characterise it differently. Bilateral arrangements reflect the negotiating leverage of the party proposing them. Multilateral institutions reflect the structural weight of the party that shapes them. These are different instruments. They are not incompatible. They will, however, resolve differently over time.

Belgium and the Netherlands have both responded to the initiative. Do the Benelux countries have a particular perspective on European defence?

The Benelux countries have developed, over a long period, a sophisticated understanding of the relationship between European unity and national security. Their support for European defence integration has been consistent since the founding treaties. I would not characterise their current response as slow.

Ed. -- Belgium was among the first to indicate support. The Netherlands described its position as constructive. -- The Beekeeper

There have been previous attempts at European security unification under strong German leadership. Are those relevant precedents?

There have been previous projects aimed at consolidating European security under various frameworks. They did not succeed through military means. The institutional approach operates through different mechanisms -- consensus, treaty, economic interdependence. It is different in character.

He looks at the window for a moment.

The conditions are also different.

Different how?

The institutional approach requires consent. Previous approaches did not.

The Dutch delegation at last week's meeting noted that in Europe, nobody runs quickly forward. Is patience the right strategy?

The Dutch have always had good timing.

He does not elaborate.

The interview was conducted in Brussels on 13 May 2026.

P. van Aarden is CEO of Bastion Industrial Partners. The firm provides infrastructure and industrial advisory services to European institutional clients.