On April 22, 2026, President Macron and Prime Minister Tusk announced a nuclear deterrence framework between France and Poland in Gdansk. Germany is included in the discussions. Germany is not alarmed.
Also on April 22, Defence Minister Pistorius presented Germany's new military strategy: 260,000 active soldiers, 200,000 reservists, by 2039. Europe's strongest conventional army. The strategy is titled "Verantwortung fur Europa." The title is accurate.
Gdansk is the city Germany called Danzig until September 1, 1939, when Germany invaded Poland to reclaim it. The Second World War began in the harbour that morning.
The Prompt notes the location.
France Extends Its Guarantee
In Athens the same week, Macron extended France's protection to Greece. "If Turkey threatens Greece," he said, "we will be here. We will support you. If sovereignty is under threat, know that we will be here."
He also addressed the United States. "We must not underestimate that this is a unique moment," Macron told the Greeks, "when the American president, the Russian president, the Chinese president are speaking against Europeans. Wake up."
The United States, he added, is "not very reliable." No European nation, he said, is "one hundred per cent sure" it can be depended upon.
France is building a continental alliance. It is building it without the United States. It is extending guarantees to Poland and Greece in the same week Germany announces its military strategy.
The United Kingdom is considering joining the Poland framework. The United Kingdom guaranteed Polish independence in 1939. It is taking its time.
The Record
On March 31, 1939, France and the United Kingdom jointly guaranteed Polish sovereignty. The United States was not part of this guarantee.
When Germany invaded Poland on September 1, France declared war. France fought. France surrendered on June 22, 1940.
The United States arrived in 1944. The war ended in 1945.
Macron's new framework does not include the United States. He has explained why.
France Has Been Here Before
France has built continental alliances before. Napoleon Bonaparte assembled a network of allied states across Europe, including the Duchy of Warsaw -- a Polish state, established as part of an architecture directed against Prussia and the eastern powers. France was the guarantor. He was confident about the continent's direction.
Russia ended the alliance. Napoleon had not expected Russia.
General de Gaulle, from London, guaranteed the Polish government in exile throughout the Second World War. He recognised its legitimacy. He was its guarantor.
Poland entered the Soviet sphere in 1945. De Gaulle did not prevent this. He was not in a position to prevent this.
France has guaranteed Poland in three different centuries. The form has changed. The outcomes have tended to differ from the stated intention.
The Nuclear Arithmetic
French nuclear-capable Rafale aircraft operating from Polish territory have a combat radius of approximately 1,800 kilometres. Moscow is 1,100 kilometres from Warsaw. Berlin is 520. Paris is 1,400.
France maintains approximately 290 nuclear warheads. Russia maintains approximately 6,000. The United States maintains approximately 5,500. Since 1945, the stability of European nuclear deterrence has rested on the relationship between these two arsenals.
The United States is not invited to Macron's framework. The arithmetic has not explained itself.
Germany Is Not Alarmed
Germany's 45th Panzer Brigade has been permanently stationed at Rudninkai, Lithuania, since May 2025. Germany's first permanent deployment abroad since 1945. By 2027: 5,000 personnel. Leopard 2A7 tanks. Puma IFVs. A multinational battlegroup under German command. Position: the Suwalki Gap, 65 kilometres between Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus.
Kaliningrad was the Prussian city of Konigsberg until April 9, 1945. The brigade is 30 kilometres away. Rudninkai is 420 kilometres from Gdansk. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were occupied by the Soviet Union in June 1940, then by Germany in June 1941. They did not offer organised military resistance to the German occupation.
Germany's historical responses to French continental alliances have tended to involve Belgium.
Germany is not alarmed.
Germany is building Europe's strongest conventional army.
Greece
France has now extended its guarantee to Greece.
Germany occupied Greece in April 1941. The campaign lasted approximately three weeks. The occupation lasted until 1944.
Greece is 1,800 kilometres from Paris. Berlin is 1,200 kilometres from Athens.
The Prompt notes the distances.
Russia
Russia is the stated justification for all of this. Alliances are forming, military budgets are rising, and eighteen-year-olds across Germany are receiving letters from the Bundeswehr asking them to consider their future. The continent is mobilising. Everyone agrees that Russia is the threat.
In the same week, Russia halted the transit of Kazakh oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany, effective May 1. Russia cited technical reasons. Germany's energy minister said supply security was not threatened.
The United States has separately ranked NATO allies by their support for the Iran war. Poland is rated highly. Romania is rated highly. Germany's rating was not specified.
The Prompt notes the flexibility of these arrangements.
The Plan Stunde Null document, published by The Prompt on April 23, 2026, describes the principal risk scenario as a "coordinated response from eastern flank partners and western alliance members following Phase 3 completion."
Eastern flank partners: Poland, Lithuania, Romania. Western alliance members: France, United Kingdom.
The document also states: "Historical nomenclature risks assessed as acceptable."
The press conference was in Danzig. The troops are 30 kilometres from Konigsberg. The engineers are digging.
The German defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.