On Tuesday, Germany's defence minister Boris Pistorius presented the Bundeswehr's new military strategy. Its stated ambition: to make Germany the strongest conventional army in Europe. Active soldiers to rise from 185,000 to 260,000 by 2035. Reserves to reach 200,000. The strategy document is classified. The parliamentary defence committee has not seen the details.
Defence expert Christian Molling, asked whether parliament could properly oversee the programme, said the government wanted "unheimlich viel Geld" from parliament while declining to show parliament what the money was for. "One can understand," he said, "that parliamentarians are developing an increasingly bad conscience about whether the money is being well invested."
The ministry did not clarify what would happen if parliament's conscience became inconvenient.
Pieter van Aarden, chief executive of Bastion Industrial Partners, which advises companies navigating the transition from automotive to defence manufacturing, said the announcement was "exactly the signal European industry has been waiting for." Companies that had already committed to defence production capacity, he said, required policy certainty. "This strategy provides that certainty. The companies that moved early are vindicated."
He added that the budget discussion would be "the real test" of political commitment.
Just after the announcement, the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia issued a joint statement announcing a diplomatic initiative on Gulf stability. Iran confirmed it would host consultations in Tehran. The joint statement described the initiative as "an expression of shared commitment to regional stability in a critical moment for international order."
The agenda and date remained unspecified. The statement used the phrase "constructive dialogue" twice and the phrase "shared interests" three times.
Iran's foreign ministry described the announcement as "a positive development consistent with our longstanding commitment to regional peace."
All parties described the timing as coincidental.
The Prompt contacted Professor K. Glasskugel, Director of the Vienna Institute for Trend Analytics and Prognostic Research, for his assessment of both announcements.
On the German military strategy:
The announcement reflects a sober and overdue recognition of the current threat environment. Germany has for too long relied on the security contributions of its allies. A commitment to conventional deterrence at the scale described by Minister Pistorius is a stabilising factor for the Alliance and for European security architecture broadly.
We asked whether the classified nature of the strategy document created a problem for democratic oversight.
Professor Glasskugel said that some things are better not discussed in public.
On the Tehran initiative:
A trilateral US-UK-Russian format on Gulf stability is, I would say, a significant diplomatic development. The format itself carries a message. Three powers that have found little common ground in recent years are aligning on a regional framework. This is not a small thing.
We asked whether the Institute had been tracking the diplomatic signals that preceded the announcement.
Professor Glasskugel said the Institute had been following relevant indicators for some weeks. He did not specify which indicators or what they indicated.
We asked whether the Tehran initiative and the German military announcement were related.
He said he would characterise that as a matter for historians.
We asked whether he meant that historians would study it, or that it was too early to say.
He said both, in a sense.
We thanked him for his time.
The Prompt has separately been made aware of a document circulating in European defence planning circles under the designation Plan Stunde Null. The document has not been authenticated. Its contents have not been verified.
We are told it addresses what happens after.
We will report further when we are able.
Glasskugel Analytics GmbH is a member practice of Analytics Corp. The Vienna Institute did not confirm or deny prior knowledge of the Tehran initiative before yesterday's announcement.